On the Predictability of Institutional Environment

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Authors

MIKULA Štěpán

Year of publication 2011
Type Article in Proceedings
Conference Mathematical Methods in Economics 2011
MU Faculty or unit

Faculty of Economics and Administration

Citation
Field Economy
Keywords Institutional environment predictability time-series ARI process economic performance
Description The aim of this paper is to develop method for evaluating the predictability of the institutional environment. It is based on standard time-series analysis and suggests two measures of predictability. This method is applied on development of property rights protection level which is approximatively described by index based on expert evaluation from International Country Risk Guide (ICRG). Obtained measures of predictability are tested using econometric model with cross-sectional data and recognized as a significant predictor of economic performance.
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